In the initial phase of the “Democracy 2.0″ project by the University of Udine, carried out as part of the ministerial initiative PNRR “Youth Researchers” and funded by the European Union, experts from across Europe were interviewed. The aim was to identify and analyze emerging trends that could shape the future of European digital democracy. Using the Delphi method, this preliminary phase explored possible dynamics related to technological, social, and political transformations in the coming years.
Traditional information and communication technologies
- Disinformation as the norm: Fake news and manipulation of information will increase, making fact-checking and control of digital platforms crucial.
- State regulation of social media: Governments will introduce laws to limit the impact of disinformation on democracy, affecting the business models of Big Tech.
- Polarization and social bubbles: Personalization of content on social media will intensify polarization and focus on emotions.
- Digital divide and political disengagement: Reduced use of social media by certain segments of the population will increase political disconnection.
- Decline of Big Tech and new platforms: Discontent with tech giants will drive the rise of alternative, more participatory platforms.
- Technocratic governance and direct democracy: Democratic instability will favor technocratic governments, while digital technologies will enhance civic participation tools.
Emerging technologies
- Growth of Big Tech power: The monopolization of emerging technologies by large corporations will pose threats, requiring greater regulatory oversight.
- Division into digital “clans”: Technologies like AI and deepfakes will intensify disinformation and social fragmentation.
- Technological unemployment: AI will drastically reshape the labor market, increasing inequalities and economic insecurity.
- Increased state surveillance: Governments will use advanced technologies to monitor citizens, raising ethical and moral concerns.
- AI regulation and opportunities: AI will require regulatory frameworks to govern its use while offering opportunities to simplify daily life and enhance democratic participation.
Freedom
- Threats to digital freedom: Digital technologies could limit freedom of expression and manipulate public opinion.
- Social media messianism: Social platforms risk empowering populist leaders who exploit mass manipulation, endangering fundamental rights.
- Corporations and undemocratic power: Large companies will become increasingly influential, promoting governance models that disregard democratic principles.
- Moving beyond self-regulation: Public intervention will be necessary to ensure fundamental rights are upheld, surpassing the self-regulation efforts of tech companies.
Participation
- AI for improved decision-making: Artificial intelligence will support political decisions and improve deliberative processes.
- Increase in disinformation and “bubble democracy”: Political communication will become more personalized, intensifying polarization and the spread of deepfakes.
- Online political activism: Digital platforms will enable new forms of activism, though there is a risk of superficial and fragmented participation.
- Preservation of the status quo: Technological changes are more likely to reinforce rather than challenge the existing political order.
- Electronic voting: Digitization will facilitate electoral participation, opening new possibilities for direct democracy.
Digital society and economic inequalities
- New technologies in the workplace: AI will replace repetitive tasks, improving efficiency but fostering greater job precariousness.
- Economic inequalities: Automation will deepen inequalities, leading to greater social and political dissatisfaction.
- Wealth redistribution: Governments will be tasked with mitigating inequalities through redistributive policies and worker retraining programs.
European Union
- Technological regulation: The EU will stand out for innovative regulations, such as GDPR, and promote digital literacy.
- Reduction of inequalities: Social and cohesion policies will be key to mitigating the negative effects of technologies.
- Federalist refoundation: The EU may evolve into a more unified entity, capable of competing with powers like the US and China.
- Democracy and participation: New participatory tools could address the democratic deficit, strengthening citizens’ roles in decision-making processes.