In the second phase of the “Democracy 2.0” project by the University of Udine, carried out as part of the initiative PNRR “Youth Researchers” and funded by the European Union, scenarios on the future of European digital democracy were developed. The 7 scenarios represent an attempt to organize and systematize multiple dynamics identified by experts into coherent frameworks. These scenarios not only synthesize the identified transformation trajectories but also provide an interpretative map of plausible futures based on the research outcomes, contributing to fostering reflections and strategies in a rapidly evolving context.
THE SEVEN SYNTHESIZED SCENARIOS
- Public regulatory power
European institutions take on an increasing regulatory role, strengthening citizens’ digital rights within a liberal-democratic framework. Laws such as the Digital Services Act and the AI Act are implemented to counter misinformation and risks associated with AI. Efforts focus on digital literacy and specific rights to ensure transparency, privacy, and active participation, promoting robust public governance that limits the power of Big Tech. - Techno-authoritarian degeneration
The lack of technological management fuels authoritarian drifts and growing social inequalities. States use technologies like AI and facial recognition for pervasive control, while Big Tech consolidates economic and informational power. Political polarization and institutional distrust create fertile ground for populist and technocratic leaders, undermining freedom and transparency. - Anti-technocratic popular uprising
Social discontent caused by inequality and precariousness leads to mass protests and youth movements, challenging representative democracy. Despite initial technocratic paternalism, institutions face growing pressure to engage with citizens and adopt more participatory approaches. Alternative movements become the driving force for social and political change. - Informed and deliberative community
Democracy evolves towards participatory governance based on digital literacy, collective intelligence, and inclusive welfare. The EU promotes social cohesion and deliberative tools such as mini-publics and participatory platforms. Technologies become allies in empowering citizens and workers, reducing inequalities, and fostering a cohesive and less polarized public sphere. - Privatized cannibalization of society
The EU fails to regulate technologies, allowing Big Tech to dominate society and markets. Misinformation spreads, social polarization increases, and job precariousness worsens. Political power diminishes, leaving control in the hands of large corporations that monopolize resources and infrastructure, exacerbating inequalities and undermining democracy. - Direct digital democracy
Technology enables more direct political participation through decentralized platforms, blockchain, and e-voting. AI automates tasks, freeing cognitive resources for civic engagement. However, the absence of intermediaries and increasing reliance on digital assistants pose risks of technocratic paternalism, potentially limiting the depth of political participation. - Democratic-social renewal of the EU
A federalist and democratic European Union emerges, with a strong central government and trans-European parties. Progressive movements advocate for redistributive policies and antitrust regulations against Big Tech. The EU becomes a leader in ethical technological innovation and social justice, promoting a cohesive society that decisively addresses inequalities and global challenges.